DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/18 11:33

DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/18 11:33

Wheat, Corn Lower at Midday

Wheat is the downside leader at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow 50 points higher. The
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 38 points higher.
Energies are narrowly mixed. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are
mixed with gold flat.


Corn trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with light selling during the
day session as we head to the long weekend The Western Corn Belt should be more
open in the near term with the central part looking more open, and most rains
concentrated to the east with forecasts showing more consistency, and the
extended forecasts trending warmer. Ethanol blender margins have remained
strong with ethanol futures edging slightly lower this morning. South American
harvest should continue to move along at a good clip. The weekly export sales
were improved at 947,600 metric tons old crop, and 18,400 of new. On the May
nearby chart, support is the recent low at $3.55 then $3.52, with the 10-day at
$3.61 nearby resistance, and then the 20-day at $3.66.


Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with quiet midday trade going into the
three-day market weekend. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower, and oil is 10 to 20
point higher. Crush margins have faded this week with basis trying to firm in
spots of the central U.S. South American currencies remain cheap as soybean
harvest winds down, which should limit harvest pressure. On the trade front,
further negotiations were announced with a projected end date in late May with
trade remaining in show me mode. The weekly export sales were soft at 382,100
metric tons of old crop, 21,100 of new, meal 295,300 metric tons, and 24,200 of
oil. On the May chart support is the recent low at $8.76 1/2, and then the
six-month low at $8.71, with resistance clustered in the $8.93 to $8.95 range.


Wheat trade is 1 to 8 cents lower with early short covering giving way to
renewed fund selling with the spreads favoring the higher protein wheats.
Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched closely for further rains, with a
mixed start to the year with Romanian conditions off 20% from last year. The
U.S. high Plains look drier in the near term, but moisture is very good for the
moment with warmer temps to boost growth, with progress in the north likely to
remain behind pace but should be more open into next week. The dollar is
sharply higher this morning. The weekly export sales were mixed at 317,700
metric tons of old crop, and 227,800 of new. On the May KC chart support the
fresh lows at $4.14, with the lower Bollinger band at $4.15, and resistance the
10-day at $4.26.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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